Larsen and Toubro at the cusp of danger

im also worried..it will have a negative impact on LnT if it emerges as the winner..I hope Lnt exits satyam after pushing up the bid price to 100 levels if possible..The average cost comes to around 80 for larsen. so anything above 80 if they can offload their holdings, it will be great for the company and will ensure that the counter moves forward sharply from here.

The only reason iam worried for Lnt is they have already invested 650 crore in satyam. Now add to this a bid price of even Rs.80 will entail 2700 crore of additional outflow to acquire 51% majority stake in the company. The story doesnt end here. Satyam is bankrupt basically with no significant assets on the balance sheets to match up to their possible liabilities. A careful analysis of their Profit and loss account shows that the company would need anywhere between 1000-1200 crore to run its operations every quarter be it payment of employee salaries or administration and selling expenses. So the potential acquirer will have to foot this burden also going forward. The restatement of accounts to know the real status of satyam may take a lot of time as close to seven years have to be restated. For a company of satyam's size and magnitude it would take anywhere between 6-8 months to complete this process as a typical statutory audit of an MNC will take atleast 2 months to review the prev year financial statements and audit the current year financials. So we are looking at somewhere beyond october for giving the final shape to the satyam saga whereby the actual truth shall emerge. Therefore until October we are typically looking at two quarters whereby the acquirer might have to support the company which again means an outflow close to 2400 crore. (assuming 2 quarters * 1200 ).
Assuming Larsen does buy out satyam we are looking at a total outflow of 5750 ( Initial investment 650 + Acquisition cost 2700 + Administration cost 2400 )

Almost 60% of larsen's networth of 9555 crore as per latest audited balance sheet goes into Satyam's rehabilitation. Is it worth the exercise at all. How will larsen supports its core businesses if such huge chunks of money go into satyam

Therefore its pretty clear, Larsen will not, cannot and should not buy out satyam. If it does take the risk of acquiring satyam, it puts its existing businesses under immense peril and danger

Larsen's participation in the bidding process should merely be restricted to pushing up the bid price if the open auction route is taken.

Maybe the market is also beginning to realise that Larsen might not ultimately buy out satyam and that maybe explains the recent upmove we are seeing in the counter that continues to be constrained by the satyam saga which hangs like an albatross around its neck

I would conclude by saying it may even be worthwhile for larsen to sell or offload satyam's shares in the open market even at a marginal loss in case the share price does not breach Rs.80 (which is LnT's average cost of acquiring satyam shares). Whatever be the case satyam cannot be a strategic fit for larsen and toubro given the current circumstances. The long term costs of this acquisition will outweigh the benefits. Accepting a mistake and rectifying the same is much more prudent than repeating it by throwing good money behind bad