Is this a new bull market rally

i dont think so because of the following reasons

1. Bull markets have never started with a V shaped recovery in the history of equity markets so far. This rally is typically V shaped and has taken everyone by surprise by the speed of its recovery

2. Bull markets will start only after long periods of consolidation and the evidence we have is only of one higher bottom at 8100 levels which cannot be substantive evidence to conclude that the bear market is over

3.Bear markets typically take 18 m to get over and by that coincides with election time this year..so this sounds scary to me

4.This rally has come up at a time when everyone was pessimistic that markets wil fall further..so there is every chance that this rally might continue to convince people that we are out of the bear market..for eg if it goes to 11500 levels im sure every man on the street will start saying its a bull market and maybe thats the time we will have another sharp correction to confirm that we are still in a bear market
4. Problems in the US are just not over..the global rally now is just based on pure sentiment that geithner`s plan is going to work wonders for the banking sector but the hard truth is we still have huge losses hidden in banks and even the regulators donot know the size of losses in the system..So this throwing of good money over bad money has never ever worked in the history of credit markets. we may still have a couple of institutions that might collapse later in the year..so the bear market is very much on and i still believe the lows are not in place and we may go below 7000 levels

Even our domestic story is not looking so sanguine..all the data we get in feb n march are pre election govt spending and capital spending by corporates at the year end for depreciation purchases..we need to see how the data pans out in the next quarter as the entire govt machinery will stop working for the next 4 m until the new govt stabilises..there will be no policy action or reforms until then at this crucial juncture

yes i will change my opinion if by the time of the next vicious correction that we have, if we make a higher bottom above 8100 and reverse sharply, that will make me think over my analysis. Bear markets end in revulsion and not in denial..we havent seen a capitulation of sorts in certain sectors because the last time in october when markets looked close to capitulation, segments like banking and cap goods were still at higher valuations

so im still with the bears at this moment