About Me
- dharma
- I believe in "Baptism by fire" that will transform me from an average joe to a true blue bee's knees in corporate finance and investment banking
Monday, January 28, 2008
Marketing Research : Inspired to write a few lines on the subject cos of the "ONE"
It involves the following:
* Identifying the target population/ market segment for a particular product
* Identification of customer choices and keeping a tab on their changing tastes and fashions
* Identifying "White spaces and opportunities" in any market and advising clients on product
segmentation
* Assessing the need for new or improved versions of a product based on customer feedback
* Benchmarking a product against competitors and advising on strategy to counter competition
* Identification of appropriate pricing points for a product in different market segments across
geographical diversities and location of sale/ distribution outlets for a company
and much more....(the list is exhaustive) (Maybe AC nielsen or IMRB experts can add on more to this list)
This function of "Marketing research" can be condensed to mean providing the right information, at the right time, to the right person and thereby becomes a vital cog in the decision making process of any top management. Its a highly useful tool that's designed based on scientific sampling methods to elicit rational responses/solutions to specific problems of marketing.
P.S : I never knew that so much information can be condensed and conveyed through bar diagrams, pie charts and tables until i saw their reports ...guys keep up the good work!!
The problem of food deficit and poverty
The present scenario as outlined below does raise a lot of concern for policy makers all across the globe:
*Rapid urbanisation in the developing world and the resultant impact on food markets
*Deterioration of natural resources all across the globe due to industrial demand
*Ineffective farm produce and lack of superior technology to generate high yielding crops
*Imbalanced subsidy regime in developed world vis a vis developing and under
developed nations (i would avoid calling any underdeveloped nation as a third world country
simply because if they are "poor" today its because of the exploitation by the colonial powers
that were occupying them in the past)
* Threats to global peace and security, political imbalance in various countries which exacerbate
poverty concerns
* Rapid demand for food with rise in population is placing a huge strain on environmental
resources
Food security has become a formidable, perennial challenge for the global economy. Food security is all about producing more than enough quantity of food for every human being and addressing the needs of the undernourished populace of the world. It also needs to make use of well developed information systems today to pinpoint the exact location where there is a supply deficit of food and mobilise rapid transport systems to move food quickly to these areas.
The lesson to date is that no sustainable poverty alleviation program will be successful unless it implants itself with efforst to improve rural livelihoods which would mean boosting their income resources. Economic growth originating in agriculture will have a strong impact on poverty and hunger eradication. Increasing employment and productivity in agriculture will stimulate demand for non agricultural goods and as a corollary, the demand for agro based goods should stem up from the non agro based population. Investment in poverty alleviation and hunger reduction is seen as a welfare measure but however it is this investment which generates superior economic returns going forward.
Technological Access
Improved technology, especially for small-scale farmers, hastenes poverty reduction
through increased crop yields and higher incomes. His access to technology has been hampered by gaps in infrastructure, seed and input markets and very often by his inability to fund these inputs. A great deal needs to be done to alleviate small farmers’ constraints to technology access and profitable use. Technologies that build on and complement local knowledge tend to be particularly effective in meeting the needs of poor farmers in marginal environments. Cheap and effective supply of low cost credit by the banking sector with flexible repayment norms and subsidy support from government agencies are the means to the end in this regard. Vigilance mechanisms should be strengthened by policy makers to ensure that the flow of credit/public investments in this sector finds its way to right end user i.e the poor farmer, through appropriate channels leaving no scope for peculation by middlemen and unscrupulous agents.
Importance of Trade
Trade offers opportunities for the poor and food insecure by acting as a catalyst for
change and by promoting conditions in which the food insecure are able to raise their
incomes and live longer, healthier, and more productive lives.
Opening national agricultural markets to international competition – especially from
subsidized competitors, before basic market institutions and infrastructure are in place
can undermine the agricultural sector with long term negative consequences for poverty
and food security. To minimize the adverse effects and to take better advantage of emerging opportunities, such as those arising from agriculture diversification to bioenergy and other non-food products, governments need to understand better how trade policy fits into the national strategy to promote poverty reduction and food security. Expanding the benefits of trade for the
poor requires a range of other factors, including market infrastructure, institutions and
domestic policy reforms.
Public and Private Investment
Public investment in infrastructure, agricultural research, education and extension is
essential in stimulating private investment in agriculture. But actual public expenditures for agriculture and rural development in the developing world do not reflect the importance of the sector to their national economies and the livelihood of their populations. In fact, government expenditures on agriculture come closest to matching the economic importance of the sector in those countries where hunger is least prevalent.FDI or FII inflows into any country also ignore this vital sector given the cyclical pattern of the industry as well as the longer payback period. Private investment will always follow public expenditure in rural infrastructure and the respective governments have to take the seed intiatives.
Marketing Intiatives:
The expanding urban markets is a major challenge for agriculture and food marketing systems in the years to come. Rapidly rising urban food demand, accompanied by trends towards diet diversification, induces an increasingly commercial orientation of production systems, while inefficiencies in the marketing and transport infrastructure will either provide incentives for the location of production in semi-urban areas or encourage lower cost imports.
Urbanisation increases the scope for economies of scale in food marketing and
distribution, while reductions in transactions costs increase the size of the market for
distributors and retailers. The result is not only an impressive increase in the volume of food
marketing handled by supermarkets, but also substantial organisational and institutional
changes throughout the food marketing chain. Now as a result of the retail revolution, inetermediaries and middlemen have been eliminated as a whole and the farmers have begun benefiting from good realisations for their crops. Improvements in the supply chain effected by these retailers through cold storage mechanisms would enrich the quality and productivity of agri products.
Various governments across the globe must take the required initiatives and retain continuos focus on promoting the agriculture sector and tweaking its growth rates through coherent policy measures with the joint efforts and assistance from international institutions like WHO, UN and financial powerhouses like World bank, ADB and IMF. This can go a long way in preserving the world's ecosystem, its biodiversity and would ultimately promote the twin objectives of poverty alleviation and effective environmental governance.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Dont panic after the fall
The investors are in a state of shock with the way the market is behaving. The last few days have been quite rough for the market with huge amount of volatility. What has happened to the Indian market yesterday and today clearly shows that there is some major concern for the stock market not only for India but also for the global markets. Remember, panic selling is taking place throughout the world with most of the global indices deep in the red.
Now let us take the basic fundamental issue of the Indian stock market. Is it the end of the Bull Run for the Indian market? The answer is clearly No. We don’t see any major change in the fundamental story of the Indian economy. There could be one percentage point decline in the growth of Indian GDP numbers, but otherwise India would continue to be the second fastest growing economy in the world after China. The correction only indicates that the market is not willing to pay 21 times P/E multiple for the Indian stocks. Looking at the FY09 earnings projections, the market is trading at a forward P/E of 14 times. This is a very compelling reason for someone to buy into the Indian stock market. I am not saying that the market would surge in a hurry but senses are bound to prevail after this storm blows over and the dust settles down. In fact, those sitting on cash must buy now as this is a god sent opportunity to invest in the market. The only thing to keep in mind is that the selection of stock has to be really good. Some of the momentum counters not backed by fundamentals have taken a huge beating and I doubt that they would surge in the next round of the rally. The reason is very simple: when front line stocks are available at attractive valuations why would someone buy second rung companies? In fact, mid-cap as well as small-cap stocks would take their own sweet time to bounce back. I would suggest sticking to ‘A’ group companies where many of the stocks have taken a beating just because of the bad sentiment rather than due to any fundamental reason. My best picks in these tumultuous times are Reliance Industries Rs 2330 L&T at Rs 3530 and Bharat Bijlee at Rs 2750.
So what should be the strategy in a market like this? There would be some pain in the market for some more time. We had seen some excesses during the bull run, similarly we would see some excesses in the bear run too. The art of making money in this market is not to panic but to do exactly the opposite of what the people are doing. Buy when everyone else is selling and you would make a great killing in the next 12 months.
Second, don’t invest with a short-term horizon. Keep a long-term outlook for the scrip you have bought as there is a possibility that the good scrip you have bought may fall further for a short while.
Third, never chase the stock in this market. It does not make sense chasing stocks.
Fourth, don’t borrow to invest in the stock market. In fact, if you have already borrowed, slowly reduce your leveraged position.
Fifth, cut your losses in the junk and small-cap stocks where there were no fundamental reasons for them to surge. It’s better to lose 50-75 per cent than to lose 100 per cent as many of these stocks may not remain liquid in this kind of market.
Sixth, never panic in this market. There is no need to change your perception about the stock market. It’s there to survive and one would make good profits provided you have the patience. Don’t watch TV channels and don’t listen to the so-called experts. This would unnecessarily create panic resulting in huge losses. Just stay put. Hold your blue chip stocks as sense would return to the market sooner rather than later.
I am optimistic that equity would do well provided you have the patience and the courage to put money for the long-term. So don’t panic. Now is the time to act sensibly and hold your blue chips to fetch good returns for you. Just reduce your expectations in terms of returns and you would have the last laugh.